[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Mar 01 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Mar 01 0255 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 February 2021

Solar activity reached low levels with C-class flare activity. Region 2804 (N21, L=309, class/area=Dso/190 on 27 Feb) produced the only two C-class flares observed this period. The first was a C2/Sf flare oberseved at 27/1800 UTC and the second was a C3/Sf flare observed at 28/0646 UTC. Both C-class flares were associated with narrow CME signatures that were directed away from the Sun-Earth line.

A CME associated with a filament eruption in the SE quadrant on 20/1200 UTC (in LASCO C2 imagery) arrived in conjunction with coronal hole/high speed stream influences, with the effects of both features observed over 24-26 Feb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate on 25 Feb, and high throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 27 Feb and quiet to unsettled on 26 and 28 Feb. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 22-26 Feb due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influence and the arrival of the 20 Feb CME.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 March - 27 March 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low-to-low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate on 10-19 Mar. High levels are expected on 01-09, and 20-27 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 02, 06, 12-13, 15, and 21-22 Mar, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely on 02 and 18-19 Mar, all due to recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the outlook period.

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