[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2804 (N18W13, Cao/beta) exhibited slight growth and continued to be the most active region on the visible disk, producing several B-level enhancements. Region 2805 (S22W08, Cao/beta) also developed more spots but remained mostly quiet, only producing a single B-level enhancement during the period. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for isolated C-class flaring on 23-25 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 9,239 pfu observed at 22/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 23-25 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed ranged from 535-635 km/s. Total field strength averaged 3-6 nT, while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS through midday on 23 Feb. By mid to late on 23 Feb, a glancing blow from the 20 Feb CME is expected to become geoeffective, causing another enhancement in the IMF. However, due to the current HSS, only a modest increase in solar wind speed is likely with the event. CME related activity is expected to persist through midday on 24 Feb before slowly returning to ambient conditions on 25 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field continued at mostly unsettled to active levels due to persistent CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 23-24 Feb, as a glancing blow from the 20 Feb CME is expected to arrive at Earth. A return to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected by 25 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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