[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2802 (N18, L=036) was quiet and decayed to plage. Region 2803 (N21E56, Axx/alpha) was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 20-22 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 20-22 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were reflective of a negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from near 375 km/s to a peak of 605 km/s near the end of the period. Total field generally ranged from 4-11 nT, with a peak of 15 nT, while the Bz component underwent several southward deflections of -10 to -11 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 22 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) levels on 20 Feb due to CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 Feb and quiet to unsettled levels on 22 Feb as CH HSS influences slowly wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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