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Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 13 1230 UTC
From: nw7us@sunspotwatch.com
Reply-to: Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <propagation@contesting.com>
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2021 20:07:05 +0000
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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots on the visible disk. A slow-moving CME was evident in limited coronagraph imagery off the west limb at about 12/1300 UTC, likely associated with a filament eruption. Complete analysis will be conducted for any Earth-directed component as more imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 13-15 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 13 Feb. Moderate to high levels are expected on 14-15 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind was at background levels through about 13/000 UTC when wind parameters suggested a CIR, in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS, became apparent. Total field increased to near 15 nT, Bz reached -14 nT and wind speeds increased to near 550 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to be elevated through 15 Feb with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast Quiet to isolated active periods are likely on 13-14 Feb as a negative polarity CH HSS influences the field. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15 Feb.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2021 Feb 13 20:07 UTC

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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