[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2801 (N30W51, Axx/alpha) decayed to a simple unipolar group. Other activity included a filament eruption centered near N52W26 that was observed at 03/0130 UTC in GOES 16 SUVI 304 imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected on 03-05 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 03-05 Feb due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be influenced by a negative polarity CH HSS through the period. Solar wind speed ranged from 498-617 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-10 nT while the Bz component was between +7/-6 nT. Phi angle was primarily oriented in a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is anticipated to remain elevated due to CH HSS influences on 03 Feb. Solar wind speed is expected to decrease on 04 Feb as HSS influences wane and a return to a more ambient regime is expected on 05 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the rest of the UTC day on 03 Feb as HSS activity persists. Primarily quiet conditions are expected on 04-05 Feb in response to waning CH HSS effects and a subsequent return to ambient solar wind conditions.

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