[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 15-17 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15-17 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained near background levels through the period. Solar wind speeds decreased to near 315 km/s, total field remained below 5 nT, and the Bz component was between +5/-3 nT. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at mostly nominal conditions on 15 Jan and most of 16 Jan under an ambient, background solar wind regime. By late 16 Jan/early 17 Jan, a positive polarity CH HSS is likely to move into a geoeffective position, creating enhancements in the solar wind parameters. Recurrence data indicates that wind speeds over 500 km/s can be expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 15 Jan. Late on 16 Jan into early 17 Jan, conditions are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with active periods likely on 17 Jan as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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