[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-class flare activity observed. Region 2794 (S16W19, Hsx/alpha) exhibited little change while Region 2795 (S17E09, Dso/beta) exhibited intermediate spot consolidation. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, over 28-30 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,657 pfu observed at 27/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 28 Dec, with an expected return to normal-to-moderate levels on 29-30 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period, possibly due to the initial onset of negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed values steadily increased from around 450 km/s early in the period to a peak of around 600 km/s, observed between 28/0730-0800 UTC. Solar wind speeds became relatively steady at around 525 km/s through the remainder of the period. Total field strength varied between 2-8 nT and Bz varied between +/-6 nT. The phi angle was predominately negative (toward) throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 28-29 Dec due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected on 30 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28-29 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. A return to quiet conditions is expected on 30 Dec.

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