[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Both Regions 2794 (S16W05, Hsx/alpha) and 2795 (S17E21, Dao/beta) exhibited little change and were quiet throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, over 27-29 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,006 pfu observed at 26/1650 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 27 Dec, with an expected return to normal to moderate levels on 28-29 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced this period following a SSBC (from positive to negative) that occurred at around 26/2330 UTC. Solar wind speeds were steady near 425 km/s until after 26/2330 UTC, when speed values increased to a peak just below 500 km/s. After 27/0600 UTC, solar wind speed values decreased to around 450 km/s through the end of the period. Total field strength ranged between 2-7 nT and Bz remained within +/-5 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at nominal levels over 27-28 Dec. By 29 Dec, an enhancement in the solar wind environment is expected as a small, isolated, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels over 27-28 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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