[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels during the period. Region 2792 (S22E39, Bxo/beta) produced a C4/Sf at 14/1437 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep with a shock velocity of 606 km/s. SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery indicated ejecta escaped the visible disk at the peak of the event. SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery observed a CME from the SE limb associated with this event. forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modelling indicated the CME is off the Sun-Earth line. Region 2793 (S16E60, Axx/alpha) produced a few B-class events, but was otherwise stable.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 15-17 Dec, with a chance for C-class flares all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 15-17 Dec while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by available DSCOVR spacecraft data, reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT and wind speeds varied between about 330-375 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be at nominal levels on 15-16 Dec. Slight enhancements are expected on 17 Dec due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 15-16 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 17 Dec due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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