[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2790 (S23W76, Hrx/alpha) exhibited slight penumbral decay. Most of the B-level activity that occurred was associated with currently plage Region 2791 (S15, L=225) and a new area of flux that is rotating onto the visible disk from the SE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 12-14 Dec while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the declining influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-6 nT while the Bz component was mostly neutral or positive. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from ~500 km/s to just above 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment may have slightly elevated levels on 12-13 Dec due to weak coronal hole influence. No enhancements are likely on 14 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to continue at quiet to unsettled levels over 12-13 Dec as relatively weak coronal hole influence is possible. Quiet conditions are expected on 14 Dec.

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