[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2787 (N30,L=305), 2788 (S27, L=349, and 2789 (S25, L=300) decayed to plage. Region 2786 (S15W24, Cko/beta) underwent consolidation and decay in its intermediate and trailer spots, and remained inactive for the period. Newly numbered region 2790 (S23E61, Hax/alpha) produced a C3.8 flare at 01/0427 UTC which was the largest of the period.

After decaying to plage, region 2787 produced a short-lived C1.2 flare resulting in an observed CME in coronagraph imagery. Initial observation is that this CME is aimed more towards STEREO-A, but a model run is underway to determine if there is any Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 01-03 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced from the southeast limb event on 29 Nov but remained below the 10 pfu threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 01-03 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) given the sustained, gradual rise in pfu.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated. Wind speeds ranged from 400-550 km/s, total field averaged 3-4 nT, and the Bz component ranged from -5 nT to 4 nT. Phi was in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Model runs suggest a shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME on 01-02 Dec. The bulk of the ejecta was not Earth-directed.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: While model runs suggest a possible glancing blow as early as 1 Dec from the 29 Nov CME, it is not entirely likely since the CME occurred behind the east limb. Nonetheless, this expansive event has spurred a slight particle response at ACE and GOES, which suggests Earth may see some component of this CME. Active conditions are possible if this were to materialize. Otherwise quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated as solar wind rebounds nearer to background levels.

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