[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Nov 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Nov 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1 x-ray event observed at 22/0927 UTC from an active region at or just beyond the SE limb. A large spot can be seen rotating onto the E limb near S25, but has yet to be numbered. Region 2783 (S23E08, Hsx/alpha) produced numerous B-class flares and remained stable over the period. New Region 2784 (Bxo/beta) was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares on 22-24 Nov due to potential flare activity from Region 2783 or active source regions just beyond the SE limb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 22 Nov. High levels are likely on 23-24 Nov due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. After 21/1430 UTC, total field increased to 12 nT while the Bz component ranged from +8/-10 nT. Solar wind speed gradually increased through the period from approximately 365 km/s to about 640 km/s. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remained enhanced over the next few days as HSS effects persist through 24 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the onset of CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 22-23 Nov followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Nov as CH HSS activity continues.

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