[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jul 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jul 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds over 13-15 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels through about 13/0030 UTC. An enhancement in density and magnetic field parameters was observed after that time, possibly the result of early onset from the weak, slow-moving 08 Jul CME. Total field reached a peak of 11 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -8 nT, both shortly after 13/0400 UTC. Solar wind speeds averaged about 300 km/s throughout the summary period. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive solar sector through about 13/0030 UTC when a shift to a mostly negative orientation was observed through periods end.

Forecast: Slight enhancements are expected through 14 Jul due to weak CME effects coupled with a positive polarity CH HSS. A return to nominal conditions are anticipated by 15 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13-14 Jul, with isolated active intervals on the 14th, due to effects from the 8 Jul CME and a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 15 Jul.

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