[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jul 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jul 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2766 (N05E10, Axx/alpha) decayed from a bi-pole group to a single spot during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels 05-07 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds over 05-07 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to CIR effects in advance a positive polarity extension off the northern crown CH HSS. Total field increased to 10 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -8 nT. Solar wind gradually increased through the period from a low of about 335 km/s to a peak of 530 km/s at about 05/0730 UTC. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind enhancements are likely to persist on 05 Jul due to influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. A more nominal solar wind environment is expected to slowly prevail later on 06 Jul into 07 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active interval, for the remainder of 05 Jul due to continued positive polarity CH HSS effects. Isolated unsettled levels are possible on 06 Jul due to diminishing CH HSS influence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 07 Jul.

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