[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Mar 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Mar 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 01-03 Mar.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 01-03 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The near-Earth solar wind environment was enhanced this period due to possible connection from a negative polarity, northern extension of the southern crown coronal hole.

Solar wind speed values slowly increased from initial values around 450 km/s to a peak of 580 km/s at 29/1943 UTC. After the peak, winds decreased to about 450 km/s at periods end. Total field strength values increased to around 9 nT while the Bz component varied between +6/-7 nT.

Forecast: Continued enhanced solar wind parameters are expected 01-03 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. This enhancement is coupled with continued influence from the southern crown.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with likely isolated active periods, on 01-02 Mar. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 03 Mar. This activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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