[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Feb 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Feb 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless disk. At about 09/2330 UTC, coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery in the NE quadrant near N15E20. At this time, no CME signatures were evident. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 10-12 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a maximum flux of 2,854 pfu observed at 09/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: Moderate to high electron flux levels are expected through 12 Feb due to CH HSS influence. The proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed averaged 425 km/s, total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was variable throughout this period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 10 Feb. By mid to late on 11 Feb, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing another enhancement in solar wind parameters. Enhanced conditions are expected through 12 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 10 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are expected by mid to late on 11 Feb due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 12 Feb as HSS activity persists.

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