[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A new area of enhanced plage developed in the northwest that will be monitored for possible numbering. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 09-11 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, and the the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels during the forecast period (09-11 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected slightly enhanced conditions. Total field strength increased to a maximum of 10 nT at 09/0400 UTC, but averaged near 6 nT for the period. Bz was mostly southward and reached a maximum deflection of -7 nT and Phi angle was primarily negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at slightly elevated levels on 09 Jan as the influence from the negative polarity CH HSS persists. A return to mostly background conditions is likely by 11 Jan as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the 06-09 UTC synoptic period due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 09-10 Jan due to the anticipated effects of a negative polarity CH HSS. A return to quiet levels is expected for 11 Jan as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

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