[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Dec 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Dec 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 18-20 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment began the period at background levels, but has since become enhanced due to CH HSS influence. The solar wind increased from ambient levels to around 500-530 km/s. Total field also became enhanced, reaching values of up to 12 nT. The Bz component underwent a few southward deflections with -9 nT being the largest. Phi angle switched from negative to positive at approximately 18/0155 UTC as a SSBC occurred.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated, and likely increase, on 18 Dec as CH HSS influence persists. Enhanced conditions are anticipated to continue into 19 Dec, and begin to decline 20 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to respond with quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods 18-19 Dec. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 20 Dec as ambient, background conditions begin to return.

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