[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels on 25-27 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase from normal to high levels on 25 Oct as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Electron flux levels are expected to remain at high levels on 26-27 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds were elevated reached sustained speeds of ~600 km/s. Total field peaked at 13 nT early, then settled near 6 nT for most of the latter portion period. The Bz component was variable with prolonged periods of southward deviations. Phi was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 25 Oct due to persistent CH HSS influences. CH HSS effects are projected to begin tapering off on 26-27 Oct as the CH HSS transits out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G2 (moderate) storm levels due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (minor) storm periods for the remainder of 25 Oct. Conditions should begin to taper off on 26-27 Oct to active conditions or less, as the CH begins rotating away from a geoeffective position.

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