[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Oct 21 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Oct 21 0358 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 October 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 14-15 Oct and again on 17-20 Oct with a peak flux of 777 pfu observed at 14/1500 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed was mostly in the 300-400 km/s range but increased to 400-440 km/s on 16-17 Oct. Total field ranged from 1-8 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods on 15 and 20 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 October - 16 November 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 24 Oct, 04-11 Nov, and again on 13-16 Nov. High levels are expected on 25 Oct-03 Nov due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 21-22 Oct and 24-29 Oct with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 24-25 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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