[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. An area of enhanced plage developed during the period near S13W09. A filament erupted at about 19/2200 UTC along a 20 degree, E/W oriented channel centered near S35W02, observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. A narrow, slow-moving CME signature was observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery after 20/0000 UTC. Analysis of any Earth-directed component is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 21-23 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak flux of 957 pfu observed at 20/2020 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate with a chance of high levels on 21-23 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through about 21/0345 UTC. Prior to this time, wind speeds were steady at about 300 km/s, total ranged between 3-4 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive solar sector.

After 21/0345 UTC, wind speeds increased to between 340-370 km/s, total field increased to 5-7 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. The phi angle was variable between positive and negative sectors. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at mostly nominal levels on 21-22 Sep. By early to midday on 23 Sep, parameters are expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to be in the 450-550 km/s range based on STEREO A MAG & PLASTIC data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 21-22 Sep. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 23 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS activity.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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