[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 2745 (N02W27, Axx/alpha) emerged over the reporting period and remained relatively simple and inactive. A DSF was reported by San Vito Observatory near S55E06 after 21/1733 UTC and before 22/0500 UTC. No subsequent CME signature was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery following the event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 22-24 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,300 pfu observed at 21/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 22 Jul, decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 23-24 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated weak enhancements. Total magnetic field strength increased above 5 nT after 21/1800 UTC, with a peak of 10 nT reached at 21/2136 UTC. Bz was sustained southward between 22/0320-0550 UTC and reached as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly increased from 350 km/s at 22/0600 UTC to slightly around 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Enhancements in solar wind parameters are likely over the next three day (22-24 Jul) in response to influence from multiple, negative polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels on 22-24 Jul in response to influence from multiple, negative polarity coronal holes.

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