[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No sunspots were present on the visible disk. An approximate 15 degree long filament erupted along a channel centered near S28W42 between 13/1700-1840 UTC. This filament was in the vicinity of old Rgn 2744 (S28, L=214). Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at about 14/0041 UTC. Initial LASCO C2 imagery observed a narrow, slow-moving CME off the SW limb, first observed at about 14/0236 UTC. Further analysis of any potential Earth-directed component is ongoing as more imagery becomes available. At this time, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 14-16 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,690 pfu observed at 13/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (14-16 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced with wind speeds averaging around 450 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 to -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by midday on 15 Jul as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range are expected based on STEREO A solar wind data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder of 14 Jul into early on 15 Jul. By midday on 15 Jul, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective resulting in unsettled to active conditions. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist into 16 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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