[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Jun 03 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Jun 03 0154 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 May - 02 June 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were observed on the visible disk. The strongest flare of the period reached B2 at 01/1454 UTC and was from around the E. limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 27-28 May, moderate levels on 29 May and moderate to high levels on 31 May - 02 Jun. The increase in electron flux was due to increased solar wind speeds from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. A weak, slow-moving transient was observed on 27 May, resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds for the transient were between 320-380 km/s. Late on 28 May, an increase in solar winds to between 500-550 km/s was observed, producing unsettled conditions through 29 May, with an isolated period of active during the 29/0300-0600 synoptic period. The geomagnetic field returned to quiet levels after 30/0300 UTC as effects from the negative polarity CH HSS slowly waned. Quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 June - 29 June 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the reporting period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 03-06 Jun, 09-10 Jun and 26-29 Jun; moderate levels are expected on 07-08 Jun, 11-22 Jun and on 25 Jun. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. All increases in electron flux are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain below G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions are likely on 25 Jun; unsettled conditions are likely on 03-05 Jun, 08-09 Jun, 23-24 Jun and 26 Jun. Elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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