[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. A small region formed over night near N11W09, and will be considered for classification and numbering over the course of the next period barring decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 29-31 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29 May, then increase to moderate to high levels on 30-31 May with elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became enhanced over the course of the period with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field fluctuated between 5-12 nT, and the Bz component ranged from 9 to -10 nT. Wind speeds increased from around 350 km/s to peaks reaching 550 km/s. Phi angle was predominately in a negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced with influences from recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs over the next two days (29-30 May). A return to near-background conditions is expected by 31 May as CH HSS influences wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period.

Forecast: Field conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS activity over the next two days (29-30 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 31 May as CH HSS activity decreases.

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