[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels as Region 2740 (N09E07, Cao/beta) produced an impulsive C6/Sf flare at 09/0551 UTC. Region 2740 underwent umbral division but maintained a weak, bipolar magnetic configuration. Region 2741 (N07E45, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (09-11 May) as Region 2740 maintains its weak, yet persistent, bipolar configuration.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels all three days (09-11 May), and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a background solar wind regime through approximately 09/0445 UTC. Total field strength was primarily 2 to 3 nT, Bz was nominal, solar wind speed averaged about 315 km/s, and the phi angle was negative. At approximately 09/0445 UTC, a weak SSBC was observed, prompting a minor enhancement in the solar wind parameters. Total field increased to 7 nT, Bz saw a southward deviation to -5 nT, and wind speeds rebounded from 305 km/s to approx 325 km/s as phi moved into a positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain near background levels on 09-10 May. However, slight enhancements are possible for the remainder of 09 May as weak CH HSS effects are finally observed. Effects should be short lived as the CH quickly moves out of a geoeffective position. Late on 11 May, the anticipated arrival of the 6 May CME is likely to produce enhancements in the solar wind parameters. However, the majority of the CME plasma appeared to be directed north of Earth, potentially limiting the impacts observed.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as the previously anticipated CH HSS finally began to influence Earth.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09-10 May as weak CH HSS influence on 09 May returns to a background solar wind environment by 10 May. The anticipated arrival of the 6 May CME is expected to result in unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, later on 11 May.

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