[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No-Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 01-02 May with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 03 May due to the return of old Region 2738.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 01-02 May. Moderate to high levels are expected on 03 May due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels over the period with wind speeds ranging from 295-350 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-9 nT, and the Bz component reached brief maximum southward deflections of up to -6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 01 May as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed reaching 500 km/s is likely based on STEREO A data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Late on 01 May, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions. Unsettled to active levels are expected to continue into 02 May followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 03 May as CH HSS effects persist.

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