[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (17-19 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mildly enhanced conditions. Total magnetic field strength reached 8 nT. The Bz was predominantly southward and decreased to as low as -7 nT. Solar wind speed peaked at approximately 467 km/s.Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive after 17/0506 UTC.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to continue through 17 Mar due to combined influence from a waning, non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS and possible CME effects from the 12 Mar event mentioned in previous discussion products. A gradual return to ambient levels is anticipated on 18-19 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels at 17/0244 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the remainder of 17 Mar due to waning CH HSS effects and potential influence from the aforementioned CME from 12 Mar. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated on 18-19 Mar.

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