[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 15 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was at very low levels, and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (15-17 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15-16 Mar, and moderate to high levels on 17 Mar due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period at ambient, background levels. However, conditions became slightly enhanced at approximately 2300 UTC for a brief period of time. Total field values were 7-8 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 6 nT. Density increased, reaching a peak of 14.60 particles per cubic cm. Wind speeds also became enhanced, briefly reaching just over the 400 km/s mark. The phi angle fluctuated between positive and negative orientations.

Forecast: A non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is expected on 15-16 Mar. Some weak effects are anticipated from a slow-moving, 12 Mar CME on 17 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 15 Mar with the arrival of a non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled levels are anticipated on 16 Mar due to waning CH HSS influence. Unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, are anticipated on 17 Mar due minor CME influences.

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