[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (26-28 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on day one (26 Feb), but increase to normal to moderate levels on day two (27 Feb), and normal to high levels by day three (28 Feb) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was below 5 nT, and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 300-350 km/s, and the phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue into day one (26 Feb). However, some disturbed or slightly enhanced IMF conditions are probable due to an SSBC and approaching CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. CIR arrival is expected on day two (27 Feb) followed by CH HSS onset. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to continue into day three (28 Feb).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with an unsettled period likely later on day one (26 Feb) due to small disturbances associated with an SSBC and approaching CIR. Day two (27 Feb) is expected to experience quiet to active conditions, with a likely period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions, due to CIR arrival and CH HSS onset. CH HSS effects are expected to continue into day three (28 Feb) causing unsettled to active conditions, with another likely period of G1 storm conditions.

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