[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (10-12 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a peak flux reached of 1,270 pfu at 09/2045 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 10-11 Jan, and decrease to just moderate levels by 12 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly enhanced regime. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3 to 5 nT, while the Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from a peak of 435 km/s, to around 360-375 km/s as the period ended. The phi angle was predominantly negative, although occasional shifts into a positive sector occurred.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain at ambient-background levels 10-11 Jan. A slight enhancement is anticipated on 12 Jan due to the influence of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain primarily quiet on 10-11 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 12 Jan due to effects associated with the CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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