[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless.

Around 23/1800 UTC an area of pronounced coronal dimming and post-eruption looping was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery in the northeast quadrant. Several hours later a nearby DSF (non-eruptive) was reported by the SVI solar optical observatory. Available STEREO-A and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery initially suggested a CME may have been associated with these events. The faint ejecta was analyzed and modeled with low confidence. Given the low confidence the official forecast will not reflect this feature.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 25-27 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to by at normal to moderate levels on 25-27 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds were near 350 km/s by the end of the period. Total field was generally less than 5 nT and the Bz component was variable with no significant deviations. Phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Conditions are expected to become enhanced due to the anticipated interaction with a recurrent, CH HSS (negative polarity) on 25 Oct. Periods of elevated activity are likely to continue through 26 Oct, and near-background levels are expected again on 27 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly unsettled levels are expected 25-26 Oct in response to a recurrent CH HSS (negative polarity). Quiet levels are expected on 27 Oct.

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