[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as the visible disk remained spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to continue at very low levels on 10-12 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 39,200 pfu at 09/1840 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 10-12 Oct due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, yet waning, CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed began the period near 625 km/s before beginning an unsteady decline to just under 500 km/s by periods end. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT. Both showed a slight enhancement at the end of the period, with total field reaching 8 nT and the Bz component seeing a southward deflection to -6 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive with isolated oscillations into the negative sector. Several data gaps in the RTSW were observed due to ongoing DSCOVR tracking issues.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced on 10 Oct as the positive polarity CH HSS rotates beyond the west limb. By 11 Oct, solar winds are expected to be just slightly above background levels as influence from the north polar CH HSS are observed. A return to near ambient conditions is expected by 12 Oct as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with a few active periods due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period likely as elevated solar wind speed remains enhanced on day one (10 Oct). Days two and three (11-12 Oct) are expected to experience reactions of primarily quiet to unsettled as CH HSS influences wane further.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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