[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 23-25 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with a peak flux of 4,753 pfu at 22/2125 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (23-25 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected influence from a positive polarity CH HSS through about 23/0400 UTC when a SSBC from a positive to a negative orientation was observed. Phi angle remained in a steady negative sector for the remainder of the period. Through the period, wind speed gradually rose through about 22/1645 UTC when a peak of 575 km/s was reached. Thereafter, wind speeds gradually decreased to end the period at about 450 km/s. Total field peaked early at 10 nT and then settled into a steady 5-6 nT. The Bz component dropped as low as -6 nT early and finished the period at about -2 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced throughout the forecast period under the influence of weak negative polarity CH HSS activity.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to isolated active levels for the remainder of day one (23 Sep) under weak negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to isolated active levels are anticipated for day two (24 Sep) due to continued weak negative polarity CH HSS effects. Effects should taper by day three (25 Sep) when quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

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