[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2722 (S07E01) decayed into a plage region and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (13-15 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,980 pfu at 12/2150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (13-15 Sep) while under the influence of a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS (positive polarity) effects. Total field was steady at 5 to 6 nT and Bz maxed at -6 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 530 km/s to around 490 km/s throughout the day.

Forecast: Conditions are likely to remain elevated for the next two days (13-14 Sep) as Earth periodically interfaces with the north polar CH HSS. Day three (15 Sep) is expected to be at mostly background levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has reached active levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to experience isolated periods of unsettled to active levels while interfacing with the north polar CH HSS over the next two days (13-14 Sep). Day three (15 Sep) is expected to see a return to mostly quiet levels.

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