[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2721 decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (11-13 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected increase from normal to moderate levels to high levels by day three (13 Sep) of the forecast and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were consistent with CIR passage and the subsequent onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was at nominal levels early in the day, then steadily rose to greater than 10 nT. The Bz component has been mostly southward and deflected to a maximum southward deviation of -12 nT. Solar wind speeds climbed from around 375 km/s to over 580 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was in a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for the next several days while under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field will likely reach G2 (Moderate) levels on day one (11 Sep) as a result of a positive polarity CH HSS. Activity is expected to taper some by day two (12 Sep), but G1 (Minor) storm conditions are still likely. Day three (13 Sep) is expected to be a day of transition, with G1 conditions becoming less likely, and mostly active conditions being expected.

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