[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 06-08 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels this period with a peak flux of 766 pfu at 05/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (06-08 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period near 490 km/s, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s, and have steadily decreased to near 420 km/s. Total field ranged between 3-7 nT, while the Bz component was mostly negative, seeing a maximum southward deflection to near -6 nT. Phi angle oscillated between positive and negative sectors throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 06 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole HSS. By 07 Sep, conditions are expected to see an additional enhancement as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Conditions should continue into 08 Sep as CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet, with an isolated unsettled period at the beginning of the day.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 06 Sep, with a chance for active conditions late in the day, with the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 07-08 Sep as influence from the negative polarity coronal hole persists.

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