[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2720 (N07W89, Axx/alpha) continued to decay as it rotated onto the west limb. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (29-31 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels, with a peak flux of 97,635 pfu observed at 28/2145 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (29-31 Aug), with a chance for very high levels on day one. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, yet waning, CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 560 km/s and remained steady between 530-550 km/s. Total field ranged between 3 to 6 nT, Bz oscillated between +/- 3 nT, and the Phi angle was predominantly positive, with deviations into the negative sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced through days one and two of the forecast period as weak enhancement from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position with influence waning on day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has remained mostly quiet for the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29-30 Aug) as influence from the positive polarity CH tapers off and a negative polarity CH moves into geoeffective position. Day three (31 Aug) should see a return to mostly quiet conditions as the negative polarity CH moves out of geoeffective position as well.

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