[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2718 (S06, L=197) decayed to plage. Region 2719 (S06E36, Cro/beta) exhibited minor growth this but remained quiet through the reporting period.

A WSA-Enlil model run of the filament eruption centered near S09W06 around 19/0600 UTC suggested the bulk of the ejecta was directed away from the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 20-22 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 18,287 pfu observed at 19/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20-21 Aug in response to elevated geomagnetic field activity. High levels are likely on 22 Aug following an enhanced solar wind environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began a steady increase after 19/1630 UTC and were sustained between 625-675 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength values reached 13 nT and Bz was predominately neutral or northward, with only brief periods of southward Bz. The phi angle exhibited rotation between 19/1315-2330 UTC and was predominately negative after 20/0000 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 20-22 Aug due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels this period due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming possible, over 20-22 Aug due to continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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