[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2713 (N04W86, Dso/beta) and 2715 (N07W28, Dsc/beta) produced multiple low-level B-class flare activity this period and both regions exhibited minor decay. The largest flare of the period was a B8/Sf at 24/0145 UTC from Region 2715. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: There is a decreasing chance for isolated C-class flare activity over the next three days (24-26 Jun) as Regions 2713 and 2715 are expected to continue a trend of overall decay.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels each of the next three days (24-26 Jun) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced over the period under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field declined from approximately 13 nT to near 3 nT. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 23/2332 UTC before slowly decreasing to around 490 km/s by the end of the period. The Bz component was variable between +12 nT and -9 nT early in the period. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish over days one and two (24-25 Jun) as CH HSS effects wane. A return to background levels is expected by day three (26 Jun) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels this period due to the influence of a positive polarity, northern pole-connected CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of day one and continuing through day two (24-25 Jun) under weakening CH HSS influence. Generally quiet conditions are expected on day three (26 Jun) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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