[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. The solar disk had no sunspots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the next three days (12-14 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,840 pfu observed at 11/1945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (12 Jun), then decrease to moderate levels on days two and three (13-14 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal, background levels. Solar wind speed averaged around 300 km/s. Total field was below 5 nT. Phi was mostly negative.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected from a negative polarity CH HSS on days one and two (12-13 Jun). A return to background levels is expected on day three (14 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for most of day one (12 Jun) before becoming unsettled late in the day due to the weak influence from a CH HSS. Day two (13 Jun) is likely to start off at unsettled levels, then drop to quiet levels late in the day. Day three (14 Jun) is expected to remain at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime.

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