[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2712 (N14W84, Axx/alpha) was absent of significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (05-07 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 22,000 pfu observed at 04/2040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high to very high levels each of the next three days (05-07 Jun) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a weakening, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 600 km/s to approximately 420 km/s by the end of the period. Total field peaked at 6 nT while the Bz component did not drop lower than -2 nT. The phi angle was predominately negative but became variable starting around 05/0430 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced during the remainder of day one (05 Jun) under the influence of weakening CH HSS conditions. The solar wind environment is expected to return to background levels by day two and three (06-07 Jun) post-CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jun) as the CH HSS weakens. Mostly quiet levels are expected on days two and three (06-07 Jun) with a chance for unsettled levels.

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