[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 22 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. New region 2710 (N16E58, Bxo/beta) was stable in growth but managed a B2 flare at 22/0507 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (22-24 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for day one (22 May). By day two through day three (23 - 24 May), electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated a nominal solar wind environment. Non-physical solar wind speeds were observed through a majority of the period. Credible values indicated wind speeds at about 300 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 3-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a steady negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels early on day one (22 May). By midday on 22 May, an SSBC coupled with a weak CIR is expected in advance of a recurrent, positive polarity extension off the northern crown. Based on STEREO-A PLASTIC data, wind speeds are anticipated to increase to near 500 km/s through day two and early on day three (23-24 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained quiet under a nominal wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels through midday on day one (22 May). For the remainder of 22 May through day two (23 May), predominately quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active intervals, are expected under positive polarity CH HSS influence. By day three (24 May) conditions should begin to taper off from early unsettled periods to mostly quiet conditions by the end of the period.

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