[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2708 (S10, L=098) decayed to plage. Region 2709 (N05E44, Axx/alpha) was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels all three days (10-12 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 56,756 pfu observed at 09/2050 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high to very high levels on days one through three (10-12 May) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed averaged 585 km/s with a peak speed of 699 km/s recorded at 09/1813 UTC. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +3 nT to -5 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is anticipated to gradually decrease on days one through three (10-12 May) as CH HSS effects diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to continued CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 May) as CH HSS effects persist. A return to mostly quiet levels are expected on days two and three (11-12 May).

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