[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 22 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 2706 (N03E36, Dao/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flare activity, throughout the forecast period (22-24 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 24,056 pfu at 21/2120 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (22-24 Apr) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed continued to decline under waning influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 600 km/s to near 490 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a slow return to near-background levels over the course of day one (22 Apr) as CH HSS influence subsides. A background solar wind environment is expected on days two and three (23-24 Apr) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under weakening CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled on day one (22 Apr) as CH HSS influence wanes. Generally quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (23-24 Apr) as a nominal solar wind regime prevails.

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