[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 28 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2700 (N06W34, Bxo/beta) underwent decay and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (28 Feb-02 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (28 Feb) and increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (01-02 Mar) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning influences from the negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT while the Bz component ranged from +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 560 km/s before decreasing to 420 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Waning CH HSS influences are expected to persist through day one (28 Feb). Solar wind speed is expected to decrease further on day two (01 Mar) as the CH HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position. Day three (02 Mar) is likely to see a return to nominal levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated active period observed early, due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (28 Feb-01 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue to wane. A return to quiet conditions is expected on day three (02 Mar).

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