[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. An area of enhanced flux, with an indication of spot formation, emerged late in the period near N06W05. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (26-28 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,610 pfu observed at 25/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal moderate levels on day one (26 Feb) increasing to moderate to high levels on days two and three (27-28 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (26-28 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slow return to ambient conditions through about 26/0600 UTC when a gradual uptick in wind speeds was observed through periods end. Wind speeds began the period near 410 km/s and declined to about 370 km/s by 26/0600 UTC. Thereafter, wind speeds gradually increased to end the period near 450 km/s. Total field ranged between 2-8 Bz while the Bz component was variable between +2 nT to -7 nT. Phi angle was variable, oscillating between negative and positive sectors.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is likely on days one and two (26-27 Feb) due to the anticipated arrival of a polar-connected, negative polarity CH HSS. By day three (28 Feb), a return to nominal solar wind parameters is expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on day one (26 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Feb) due to effects from a recurrent, polar-connected, negative polarity CH HSS.

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