[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 13 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. Region 2699 (S07W35, Dai/beta) was stable in growth and relatively inactive.

Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare on days one through three (13-15 Feb) due to the flare potential of Region 2699.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were at or near background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels for the next three days (13-15 Feb). There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on day one (13 Feb) due to recent flare activity from Region 2699. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on days two and three (14-15 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 300-325 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive solar sector with brief rotations into a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one and through the majority of day two (13-14 Feb). By late on day two to early on day three (15 Feb), parameters are expected to become enhanced with the arrival of the 12 Feb CME likely in combination with the arrival of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed reaching 600 km/s is likely with the CH HSS based on STEREO A Mag & Plastic data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and through the majority of day two (13-14 Feb). A glancing blow from the 12 Feb CME combined with CIR effects is expected to arrive late on day two through early on day three (14-15 Feb). Active levels are expected late on 14 Feb with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 15 Feb.

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