[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Feb 05 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Feb 05 0144 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 January - 04 February 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels from 29 Jan - 03 Feb. Low levels were observed on 04 Feb as new Region 2699 (S04, L=171, class/area Hsx/080 on 04 Feb) produced a C1 flare at 04/2024 UTC. The region also produced numerous B-class flares after rotating onto the disk. No Earth-directed CME activity was observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 29 Jan with a peak flux of 130 pfu observed at 29/0005 UTC. Normal levels were observed from 30 Jan - 04 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled intervals observed early on 30 Jan and again late on 31 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 February - 03 March 2018

Solar activity is expected to be to be at mostly very low levels with a slight chance for low activity through 16 Feb due to the emergence of Region 2699. Very low levels are anticipated from 17-28 Feb after the departure of Region 2699. A slight chance for low levels is possible from 01-03 Mar due to the return of old Region 2699.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels from 05-14 Feb and again from 26 Feb-03 Mar. Moderate levels are likely from 15-25 Feb due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 05 Feb, 15-17 Feb and 20-22 Feb, with isolated active periods likley on 16 Feb. This activity is due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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