[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Slight decay was observed in Region 2696 (S13W22, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (19-21 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (19 Jan), and normal levels on days two and three (20-21 Jan) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters increased slightly due to a SSBC followed by the likely beginning of a CIR enhancement. At approximately 18/1705 UTC, a sector boundary change from a positive (away) sector to a negative (towards) sector occurred. After 18/2000 UTC, total field began to increase from 1 nT to 9 nT while the phi angle deflected southward to -6 nT. Solar wind speed increased beginning after 18/2200 UTC from approximately 315 km/s to a maximum of 381 km/s at 19/0326 UTC before decreasing to near 350 km/s by the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels for day one (19 Jan). A further CIR enhancement and subsequent CH HSS is expected on day two (20 Jan) and persist through day three (21 Jan). Solar wind speeds are expected to be near 550-575 km/s, as observed in STEREO A PLASTIC data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (19 Jan). Day two (20 Jan) is expected to see mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated periods of active levels due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to dominate on day three (21 Jan) with a chance for isolated active levels due to persisting CH HSS influences.

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